Strait of Hormuz Deal Nears 🚢

SHIPPING NEWS

US-Iran Deal Edges Closer—But the Drones Haven't Stopped

A peace deal to end the Iran war and lift the Hormuz blockade is reportedly close, yet the two sides traded fire again this week—underscoring how fragile the moment is.

Trump says an agreement has been "largely negotiated, subject to finalization" between the US, Iran, and other countries. The framework would formally declare the war's end, reopen the Strait, and lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, followed by talks on Iran's nuclear program.

The operational detail is what matters for shippers. Iran has signaled it would clear mines from the Strait over a 30-day window following a deal, after which vessels from all countries could navigate freely and Iran would stop collecting transit fees. The backlog is staggering: an Iranian official says around 1,550 ships are awaiting clearance to transit, with traffic down 95%.

Markets aren't convinced it'll happen that fast. Traders on prediction platform Kalshi put just a 38% chance that flows return to normal by July 1, though confidence rises to 60% by August 1. Sticking points remain—Iran insists the waterway stays under its control, and Israel fears a limited deal leaves Iran's nuclear stockpile intact.

The violence hasn't paused for diplomacy. On Wednesday, Iran fired four attack drones at a US commercial ship; US forces downed all four and struck a ground control station in Bandar Abbas preparing a fifth. The Revolutionary Guard warned of a "more decisive answer." Until the memorandum is signed and the mines are cleared, the 100-day blockade keeps global shipping in limbo.

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VIDEO OF THE WEEK

The Largest and Most Power Snow Trains in Action

In this video, you’ll see the most powerful snow trains in action, brutal railway machines built to face extreme blizzards, frozen tracks, and mountains buried in ice. From locomotives equipped with massive rotary snowplows to trains powerful enough to push through storms where ordinary vehicles would never survive, each machine shows the incredible strength of railway engineering in frozen environments.

TRADE SNIPPETS

Stord raises $250M to arm independent brands against Amazon's delivery dominance. Logistics startup Stord has raised $250 million at a $3 billion valuation, expanding its 100-warehouse network and deploying AI robotics so smaller brands can match Amazon's next-day delivery speeds.

Chinese EV exports jump 40% in April, with Brazil becoming the top buyer. China's electric vehicle exports surged 40% year-on-year in April to 278,081 units, with shipments to Brazil rocketing 221% to make it the world's largest importer of Chinese EVs.

US fights auto parts firm's bid to claw back tariffs paid after de minimis exemption ended. The Justice Department is opposing Detroit Axle's lawsuit seeking $44 million in refunds on tariffs paid after the de minimis exemption ended, arguing the suspension didn't impose new duties.

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