US Tariff Refund Race Begins 👀

TRADE NEWS

Who Owns the Refund? The Hidden Trade Dispute

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States delivered a decision that could reshape both trade policy and corporate balance sheets. In striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Court ruled the statute “contains no reference to tariffs or duties” and does not grant the president authority to impose them. No prior administration, the Court noted, had interpreted IEEPA as conferring tariff power.

The legal conclusion is clear: the tariffs are unlawful. The financial consequences, however, are anything but straightforward.

The ruling did not outline a refund mechanism. There is no automatic repayment process, and federal agencies have yet to publish formal guidance. Trade attorneys expect an administrative framework to emerge, but caution that it could take months to organize and years to fully resolve contested claims.

In the meantime, billions of dollars in duties paid by importers hang in limbo. A secondary market has already formed. Investment firms had reportedly been purchasing refund rights at roughly 20 cents on the dollar before the decision; after the ruling, pricing moved closer to 40 cents. Larger claims—often exceeding $10 million—are drawing the most interest, effectively sidelining smaller importers from immediate liquidity options.

Procedural timing may prove decisive. Refund eligibility could hinge on filing protective protests with U.S. Customs and Border Protection within the 180-day liquidation window, or initiating actions before the Court of International Trade. Missed deadlines may permanently impair recovery.

The implications extend into mergers and acquisitions. If tariffs were paid before closing but refunded afterward, who captures the value—the seller who bore the expense or the buyer who owns the company at payment? Standard tax covenants may not clearly resolve the issue, increasing the need for explicit contractual provisions.

The policy shift is settled. The next phase will be administrative, procedural and potentially litigious—and the winners will be those prepared for it.

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VIDEO OF THE WEEK

Inside Apple’s Multibillion-Dollar Push to Make Chips in the US

Apple is beginning to bring its semiconductor manufacturing supply chain back to the United States. Nearly all of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan, which China has threatened to annex. Concentrating chip supplies on an island that could be invaded, or face steep US tariffs from Trump, is a big risk to Apple’s business.

TRADE SNIPPETS

Stripe considers acquiring PayPal amid slowing growth. Stripe is reportedly exploring a potential acquisition of all or parts of PayPal Holdings, with talks in early stages and no guarantee of a deal, a move that could reshape the digital payments landscape.

WiseTech Global to cut 2,000 jobs as AI reshapes coding era. Australian logistics software company WiseTech Global announced plans to eliminate around 2,000 jobs — nearly a third of its global workforce — over the next two years as it pivots heavily toward artificial intelligence and moves away from traditional manual coding practices.

Gold overtakes the U.S. dollar as top global reserve asset. Gold has surpassed the U.S. dollar to become the largest asset held in global reserves, as central banks increase physical gold holdings, signalling a shift away from traditional fiat dominance and highlighting diversification trends in international finance.

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