Tariff Refunds Begin 🇺🇸

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In today’s email:

  • Tariff Refunds: đź’° US to repay $166B to importers after court ruling.

  • Market Shake-Up: ⚡ BYD’s rise fuels claims of industry-wide disruption.

  • Autonomy Push: đźšś Caterpillar acquires Monarch Tractor to expand self-driving machinery.

  • Strait Tolls: đźš˘ Indonesia eyes charging ships through Malacca Strait.

TRADE NEWS

US Tariff Refunds: What You Need to Know

In a landmark ruling in February 2026, the Supreme Court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — the law President Trump had relied on to impose sweeping tariffs — did not grant the president authority to do so, finding that Congress, not the executive, holds power over such taxes. The decision triggered a cascade of lower court orders to reverse course. A judge at the US Court of International Trade subsequently directed US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to remove the tariffs from affected entries and refund any excess duties collected, along with interest.

The Scale

Court filings show more than 330,000 importers paid duties on over 53 million shipments, totalling roughly $166 billion — making this potentially one of the largest government repayments to businesses in US history.

How It Works

On April 20, CBP launched the first phase of a new claims system — called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) — allowing importers to seek repayment through the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) portal. Valid refunds will generally be issued within 60 to 90 days after a claim is accepted, though complex cases may take longer.

Will End Consumers See Any Benefit?

Largely, no. Refunds go directly to whoever paid the customs bill — the importer of record. It remains unclear how, or whether, those refunds will trickle down to retailers or shoppers who absorbed higher prices through the supply chain.

A handful of exceptions exist: Costco has indicated it would use refunds to lower prices for consumers, while FedEx has said it would attempt to pass refunds along — though this could invite class-action litigation since the benefitting customers differ from those who originally bore the cost. The broader expectation is that consumers will receive at best indirect relief, with most businesses simply pocketing whatever they can successfully navigate through the refund portal. Watch Clip

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VIDEO OF THE WEEK

BYD : The biggest SCAM of the car industry ?

For 100 years, the global car industry belonged to Germany, Japan, and the United States. In three years, BYD turned it into a bloodbath. Mercedes down 28%. Porsche lost 92% of its profits in a single year. Volkswagen cutting 50,000 jobs. Stellantis posting a $26 billion loss — its worst in history. And behind every single one of these blows, the same name keeps coming up…BYD...

But the real story of BYD isn't the one you'll read in Harvard case studies. It goes much deeper.

TRADE SNIPPETS

Indonesia eyes tolls on Malacca Strait. Indonesia is considering charging ships to transit the Malacca Strait, inspired by Iran’s Hormuz strategy, raising concerns over costs and control of one of the world’s busiest trade routes.

China backs orbital data centre startup with $8.4B support. China has extended roughly $8.4 billion in credit lines to a space startup developing orbital data centres, signalling strong state backing for space-based computing as part of its broader AI and infrastructure ambitions.

Caterpillar acquires self-driving tractor startup Monarch. Caterpillar has acquired autonomous electric tractor startup Monarch Tractor, gaining its software, electrification systems, and engineering talent to accelerate automation across its machinery portfolio.

UAE asks US for wartime financial lifeline. The United Arab Emirates is in talks with the US for a potential financial backstop—likely a dollar swap line—to protect its economy from the fallout of the Iran war and disruption to oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

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